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May 30, 2008

What next for Nepal?

Filed under: World
By Charles Haviland
BBC News, Kathmandu

With the ending of the monarchy in Nepal, what is ex-king Gyanendra planning to do now - and what will take the place of the crown?

There are reports that Gyanendra and his ex-queen, Komal, are already packing to leave the royal palace, Narayanhiti.

The lowering of the royal flag and the removal of the royal insignia from the gates by palace staff suggest as much.

Moving might not be too painful - the 1960s palace was the scene of the 2001 royal massacre and it was some time after his brother was killed before the new king moved in there.

Two royal hunting lodges near the city would be tempting alternatives but both are on government land.

He may therefore move into the private residence of Jeevan Kunj, next door to his son.

Gyanendra’s ageing stepmother, Ratna, has lived in a lodge at Narayanhiti since she married, so the shift will be harder for her.

Supreme commander

Although they have had months to think about it, Nepal’s politicians are still arguing about the new, temporary constitutional arrangements.

Clearly the republic will need a president during these two years while a completely new constitution is being written.

It is now agreed that he or she will have a largely ceremonial post but will be the supreme commander of the army, with emergency powers exercised on cabinet advice.

Maoist leader Prachanda, whose party is the biggest in the assembly, had repeatedly said he wanted the post - but that is because the Maoists still want a more powerful, executive presidency in the long run.

For now he accepts it will be someone else.

"There would have been resistance against his being supreme army commander," says Damakant Jayshi of the Kathmandu Post.

Prime contenders?

So who will it be? Nepal-watchers differ.

There is a common assumption that it will be the current prime minister, the wily 84-year-old Girija Prasad Koirala, whose dynastic family is Nepal’s answer to the Gandhis or the Bhuttos.

"For all his faults, he’s as uncontroversial a person as you could find to perform the function," says Rhoderick Chalmers of the International Crisis Group.

Damakant Jayshi says: "Koirala is inclined to become president - if this is the case, Koirala gets it!"

But Yubaraj Ghimire of Samay weekly newspaper says many in the Nepali Congress party and outside it are fed up with Mr Koirala, whom he describes as "overrated by the international community" and still driven by ambition despite his age.

He predicts powerful voices in favour of Bishwanath Upadhyay, a former chief justice, or Ram Raja Prasad Singh, a veteran and militant pro-republican.

Whoever it is will have to be elected by the 601 assembly members, by a simple majority.

Until that happens, Nepal will technically have no head of state at all.

Maoist coalition

There will also be a prime minister. Prachanda is firm favourite here, and Mr Koirala has already asked him to explore the possibility of forming a government.

Then there is the question of which parties join the government.

As the surprise winners in the April election, the Maoists - who ended their insurgency only two years ago - will lead it and, lacking a majority, want to keep a broad coalition.

It seems likely that they and three other parties - the Nepali Congress (NC), the Unified Marxist-Leninist party (UML) and the newly formed regional group, the Madhesi People’s Rights Forum (MJF) - will share out the top posts.

Cohabitation may not be easy. Over the past 18 months the Maoists and the MJF have frequently been at each other’s throats in the strife-torn south-east of Nepal.

Fourteen months ago over 20 Maoists were killed in clashes with their MJF rivals in one town. The NC and the UML are still licking their wounds after their heavy electoral losses to the Maoists.

Those are not the only centres of power in Nepal.

Enshrining rights

For all the publicity given to the republic decision, perhaps the most remarkable feature of Wednesday was the actual convening of the Constituent Assembly elected last month.

The body has 601 members and is far more representative of Nepal’s diversity than any previous legislative body.

Most notably, one-third of its members are women, which according to the United Nations puts Nepal in 14th place in the league table of women’s representation in national elected bodies.

As they work out a new constitution over two years, these newly represented groups will be hoping to enshrine their own rights as never before.

Then there are the Maoists’ own power structures, some dating from their insurgency years, some nurtured since then - especially the Young Communist League (YCL) which is notorious for thuggish behaviour but professes to be devoted to social service.

"I hope the Maoists see sense and realise there’s no logic in parallel structures," says Rhoderick Chalmers.

"But it’s tricky, and they will need new things for the YCL to do."

The same questions apply to the Maoists’ army, still largely confined in 28 camps.

While the Maoists want them merged with the national Nepal Army, the latter’s chief is vocally unwilling to accept them.

With the Maoists now in the ascendancy in the government, yet still encumbered with the baggage of a guerrilla group, many questions remain about power structures in the new Nepalese republic.

Obama expects general election campaign to start next week

Filed under: Politics

From Rebecca Sinderbrand
CNN Associate Political Editor

(CNN) — Sen. Barack Obama said that Democrats will know their presidential nominee after the final two primary states vote next week — and that in his view, the general election campaign officially will begin.

"After Tuesday, we will [have a clear idea]. I think Saturday will be important, put the Michigan-Florida issue behind us," Obama said Wednesday on a flight from Denver, Colorado, to Chicago, Illinois.

The party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meets this weekend to consider what to do about delegations from Florida and Michigan, which broke ranks to hold primaries earlier than party rules allowed.

"We’ve got three contests in succession. And at that point, all the information will be in," Obama said, referring to Sunday’s vote in Puerto Rico and Tuesday’s primaries in Montana and South Dakota.

"I suspect that you know whatever remaining superdelegates will make their decisions pretty quickly after that."

By most tangible measures, the general election fight between Obama and the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, has begun. The two men and their campaigns tangle almost daily over issues of policy, politics and character, in which Sen. Hillary Clinton does not rate a mention.

The Republican National Committee has focused its full firepower on Obama for months, and this week, its Democratic counterpart took on McCain after his team accused Obama of campaign trail gaffes and distortions.

And the Obama campaign, unlike Clinton’s, has embarked on the first stages of an ambitious strategy for the general election: going on a hiring spree with an eye toward a national campaign infrastructure, launching a massive 50-state voter registration drive, and regularly sending the senator from Illinois to crucial fall swing states that have held presidential primaries.

Obama returned home to Chicago from Denver late Wednesday after a three-day campaign swing in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. Those are all considered battleground or swing states up for grabs in November.

Obama said that the date when he would be able to claim the nomination depends on the Democratic National Committee’s Saturday decision on the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations — but that once he claims the required number of delegates, he will be the winner.

CNN.com/Live will stream live coverage of the meeting from start to finish on Saturday.

By CNN’s count, Obama is 48 delegates shy of the 2,026 needed to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination and 198 delegates ahead of Clinton. Should the rules committee decide to seat those additional delegates, the number required for the nomination would rise to reflect that fact.

Asked whether the general election campaign officially starts after next Tuesday’s votes, he said it did.

"I am sure we will have discussions with Sen. Clinton and her team. … It is technically not over until we have the number of delegates that are needed to secure the nomination," he said. "Once we have that number, then we’ll focus on the general election."

Clinton seemed to sound a note of resignation on her campaign plane as she made her way to Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

"You know, I feel so good about the process. I feel that this has been a really positive, productive primary season in so many ways," she said. "And, you know, I put some of that in the memo [sent to superdelegates Wednesday], about the numbers of people that have been brought in."

Two members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee said Wednesday that Michigan and Florida probably will be restored to half their original delegate strength. Together, Michigan and Florida have 368 delegates.

Clinton and her supporters have pressed for a compromise that seats as many delegates from the two states as possible.

"There is one number that we are going to be satisfied with, and that is 2.3 million people having their votes counted," Clinton supporter and rules committee member Tina Flournoy said Wednesday.

About 600,000 people voted in Michigan and about 1.7 million in Florida.

The DNC stripped the two states of delegates for violating party rules by scheduling their primaries too early in the cycle. Both candidates agreed not to campaign in the two states, and Obama’s name did not even appear on Michigan’s ballot.

Clinton won both January primaries.

The Obama campaign has said it is willing to concede an advantage to Clinton on how Michigan and Florida delegates are seated, portraying its position as a gesture to party unity.

Several lawsuits have been filed to force the seating of the full Florida delegation, so far unsuccessfully.

"Any compromise is going to benefit Sen. Clinton," Obama strategist David Plouffe said Wednesday. "We’re hoping there can be some reasonable resolution on Saturday that can allow us to move to the general election."

Obama downplayed concerns over legal action and other lingering legacies of a bitterly contested campaign, saying Wednesday that a contentious convention was "true of every convention" and "fairly standard fare."

"If we’ve got the number of delegates to secure the nomination, then I’m the nominee. If we’re short of that, then we’ll have more work to do. But once we achieve it, then I think we’ll be the nominee," Obama said.

"We are only a few days away. We have waited this long. We can wait a while longer."

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi signaled increasing willingness to use her influence to end uncertainty over the nomination well before the national convention in August.

Pelosi told the San Francisco Chronicle on Wednesday that she expects the nominee to be settled in the week following the final primaries.

But she told the newspaper that if the nominee is still in question by the end of June, she "will step in" to halt the standoff.

CNN’s Paul Steinhauser and Ed Hornick contributed to this report.

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